Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2019. Vol. 64. No. 6. P. 5–11

DOI: 10.12737/1024-6177-2019-64-6-5-11

A.I. Gorski¹, M.A. Maksiutov¹, K.A. Tumanov¹, O.K. Vlasov¹, E.V. Kochergina¹, N.S. Zelenskaya¹, S.Yu. Chekin¹, S.A. Ivanov¹, A.D. Kaprin², V.K. Ivanov¹

Analysis of Statistical Correlation between Radiation Dose and Cancer Mortality among the Population Residing in Areas Contaminated with Radionuclides after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station

1. A.F. Tsyb Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk, Russia. E-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищен от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра. ;
2. National Medical Research Radiological Center, Moscow, Russia

A.I. Gorski – Leading Researcher, PhD Tech.;
M.A. Maksiutov – Head of Dep., PhD Tech.;
K.A. Tumanov – Head of Lab., PhD Biol.;
O.K. Vlasov – Head of Lab., Dr. Sci. Tech.;
E.V. Kochergina – Head of Lab., PhD Med.;
N.S. Zelenskaya – Researcher;
S.Yu. Chekin – Head of Lab.;
S.A. Ivanov – Director, Dr. Sci. Med., Prof.;
A.D. Kaprin – General Director, Academician of RAS, Dr. Sci. Med., Prof.;
V.K. Ivanov – Deputy Director for Science, Corr. Member of RAS, Dr. Sci. Tech., Prof.

Abstract

Purpose: To evaluate the evidence for the correlation between radiation exposure of the population following the Chernobyl accident and cancer mortality using statistical correlation.

Material and methods: Data on deaths and causes of death for the period between 1993 and 2017 were taken from the National Radiation Epidemiological Registry (NRER). The number of deaths in males is 30771 persons including 5407 cancer death, the number of deaths in females is 29033 persons including 3472 cancer death. For analysis of statistical correlation between radiation exposure and causes of death data mining algorithms free of a priori statements on probabilistic distributions of doses and diagnoses were used. Contingency tables of deaths in two dose groups: the group 0 – <0.014 Sv and the group 1 – ≥0.014 Sv; and in three age groups: group 0 – <17 years old, group 1 – 18–60 years old, group 2 – 60+ years old were used for analysis. About 90 % of individual effective doses were accumulated from 1986 till 1993. Mean effective dose is 0.024 Sv.

Results: For the population of four areas in the Russian Federation which are most contaminate after to accident on the CNPP significant association of all causes of death from cancer and for three-digit headings ICD-10 with an exposure dose was not found.

Statistically significant association between dose and pancreatic cancer (C25.9 ICD-10) and stomach cancer (С16.9) in males, stomach cancer (С16.9) and malignant neoplasms of bronchus and lungs (C34.9) in females was found. The association between dose and cancer death was demonstrated in 150–230 cases.
These diagnoses of causes of death first of all have to be a subject of more sensing and specific radiation and epidemiological analysis considering possible the confounding factors.

Conclusion: The presented method is exploratory in nature and can be used to find a direction of research necessary for making more accurate evaluation of epidemiological evidence for the correlation between dose and effect. The method may be useful for evaluation of the association between radiation exposure and pathological response (death).

Key words: population, Chernobyl accident, contamination by radionuclides, mortality, malignant neoplasms, radiation dose, radiation risk, statistical correlations, contingency tables, odds ratio

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For citation: Gorski AI, Maksiutov MA, Tumanov KA, Vlasov OK, Kochergina EV, Zelenskaya NS, Chekin SYu, Ivanov SA, Kaprin AD, Ivanov VK. Analysis of Statistical Correlation between Radiation Dose and Cancer Mortality among the Population Residing in Areas Contaminated with Radionuclides after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2019;64(6):5–11. (in Russian).

DOI: 10.12737/1024-6177-2019-64-6-5-11

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