JOURNAL DESCRIPTION
The Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety journal ISSN 1024-6177 was founded in January 1956 (before December 30, 1993 it was entitled Medical Radiology, ISSN 0025-8334). In 2018, the journal received Online ISSN: 2618-9615 and was registered as an electronic online publication in Roskomnadzor on March 29, 2018. It publishes original research articles which cover questions of radiobiology, radiation medicine, radiation safety, radiation therapy, nuclear medicine and scientific reviews. In general the journal has more than 30 headings and it is of interest for specialists working in thefields of medicine¸ radiation biology, epidemiology, medical physics and technology. Since July 01, 2008 the journal has been published by State Research Center - Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of Federal Medical Biological Agency. The founder from 1956 to the present time is the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, and from 2008 to the present time is the Federal Medical Biological Agency.
Members of the editorial board are scientists specializing in the field of radiation biology and medicine, radiation protection, radiation epidemiology, radiation oncology, radiation diagnostics and therapy, nuclear medicine and medical physics. The editorial board consists of academicians (members of the Russian Academy of Science (RAS)), the full member of Academy of Medical Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, corresponding members of the RAS, Doctors of Medicine, professor, candidates and doctors of biological, physical mathematics and engineering sciences. The editorial board is constantly replenished by experts who work in the CIS and foreign countries.
Six issues of the journal are published per year, the volume is 13.5 conventional printed sheets, 88 printer’s sheets, 1.000 copies. The journal has an identical full-text electronic version, which, simultaneously with the printed version and color drawings, is posted on the sites of the Scientific Electronic Library (SEL) and the journal's website. The journal is distributed through the Rospechat Agency under the contract № 7407 of June 16, 2006, through individual buyers and commercial structures. The publication of articles is free.
The journal is included in the List of Russian Reviewed Scientific Journals of the Higher Attestation Commission. Since 2008 the journal has been available on the Internet and indexed in the RISC database which is placed on Web of Science. Since February 2nd, 2018, the journal "Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety" has been indexed in the SCOPUS abstract and citation database.
Brief electronic versions of the Journal have been publicly available since 2005 on the website of the Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety Journal: http://www.medradiol.ru. Since 2011, all issues of the journal as a whole are publicly available, and since 2016 - full-text versions of scientific articles. Since 2005, subscribers can purchase full versions of other articles of any issue only through the National Electronic Library. The editor of the Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety Journal in accordance with the National Electronic Library agreement has been providing the Library with all its production since 2005 until now.
The main working language of the journal is Russian, an additional language is English, which is used to write titles of articles, information about authors, annotations, key words, a list of literature.
Since 2017 the journal Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety has switched to digital identification of publications, assigning to each article the identifier of the digital object (DOI), which greatly accelerated the search for the location of the article on the Internet. In future it is planned to publish the English-language version of the journal Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety for its development. In order to obtain information about the publication activity of the journal in March 2015, a counter of readers' references to the materials posted on the site from 2005 to the present which is placed on the journal's website. During 2015 - 2016 years on average there were no more than 100-170 handlings per day. Publication of a number of articles, as well as electronic versions of profile monographs and collections in the public domain, dramatically increased the number of handlings to the journal's website to 500 - 800 per day, and the total number of visits to the site at the end of 2017 was more than 230.000.
The two-year impact factor of RISC, according to data for 2017, was 0.439, taking into account citation from all sources - 0.570, and the five-year impact factor of RISC - 0.352.
Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2018. Vol. 63. No. 2. P. 25-32
RADIATION MEDICINE
DOI: 10.12737/article_5ac61d88969a97.33709654
Mathematical Model and Software for Prognosis the of Probability of the Lethal Outcome of Oncosurgical Patients Exposed to Radiation Exposure in the Conditions of Production
Yu.D. Udalov1, I.V. Vasilyeva1, A.V. Gordienko2, S.A. Bakharev1
1. A.I. Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center, Moscow, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ; 2. S.M. Kirov Military Medical Academy, Saint-Petersburg, Russia
Yu.D. Udalov - PhD Med., Deputy Director General; I.V. Vasilyeva - PhD Med., Medical Statistician; A.V. Gordienko - Dr. Sc. Med., Prof., Head of Dep.; S.A. Bakharev - Physician, Anesthesiologist
Abstract
Purpose: Identification of risk factors that influence the outcome of the patient, their ranking on the contribution to the outcome of treatment, as well as determining the possibility of their additional diagnostic evaluation and correction in the deviation at the preoperative preparation stage with the subsequent construction of a prognostic model.
Material and methods: The study included patients who received treatment in the surgical department in A.I. Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center from January 2009 to July 2017, including workers of nuclear facilities that are exposed to ionizing radiation in professional conditions. The study was conducted in 112 patients, 42 of whom (37.5 %) were men and 70 (62.5 %) women aged 25 to 85 years (59.6 ± 13.2). Among the persons included in the study, 25 men and 26 women were exposed to long-term exposure to ionizing radiation from external sources under production conditions during labor activity within the limits of annual maximum permissible doses, averaged 124.6 ± 10.7 mSv. The work experience under conditions of exposure to ionizing radiation ranged from 5 to 35 years, an average of 24 years. The mean age was 59.1 ± 13.4 years. At the end of hospitalization after surgical treatment, 51 patients were discharged (45.5 %), and 61 (54.5 %) died. In all patients, the parameters of the functioning of various organs and systems were collected, including taking into account the anamnestic data of oncological patients, with differentiation in the final outcome of surgical treatment. To determine the leading risk factors for the lethal outcome of the oncosurgical patient, the Fisher criterion χ2 was used. Based on the leading risk factors for constructing mathematical models, the logistic regression equation was used. The mathematical models were analyzed by researching the area under the ROC curves.
Results: Using the Fisher criterion χ2, factors were determined by which the groups of survivors and died patients differ: patient age, body mass index, history of heart rhythm disorders, fraction of cardiac output, Hb level in the blood, presence of protein in urine, INR indicator in coagulograms. Based on the identified factors, twelve mathematical models were constructed using the binary logistic regression method, allowing patients to be divided into groups with the outcomes of hospitalization died / survived after surgery. A mathematical model with the best discriminating ability was chosen. Based on the prognostic model, a decision rule was designed that allows to rank patients into three groups: green (patients with a minimal risk of death), yellow (patients who need preoperative correction), red (patients with the maximum risk of death, decision about surgery is necessary to be solved on a consultation).
Key words: prognostic score, prognosis of lethal outcome of oncosurgical patients, radioactive exposure
REFERENCES
- Occupational morbidity of employees of enterprises contracted for medical services to the FMBA of Russia. II Scientific and Practical Conference of the Federal Medical Biological Agency of Russia “Modern Aspects of Industrial Health in the System of the Federal Medical Biological Agency”, Moscow, 2006, Nov 24. Uiba VV, editor. Moscow. 2006:115-8. (In Russ.).
- Demin SN, Krotov VA. The main tasks of industrial and sanitary supervision at the current stage. Materials of the conference 80 years of the State Sanitary and Epidemiological Service of Russia and 55 years of the Federal Agency “Medbioextrem”. Krotova VA, editor. St. Petersburg; 2002:99-106. (In Russ.).
- UNSCEAR 2000. Report to the General Assembly, with Scientific Annex. Annex I. Epidemiological evaluation of radiation-induced cancer. United Nations. New York. 2000:297-450.
- Krivoruchko IA, Taraban IA. Repeated operations with intra-abdominal postoperative complication. Surgery Eastern Europe. 2012;(3):66-7. (In Russ.).
- Davydov MI, Axel EM. Statistics of malignant neoplasms in Russia and CIS countries in 2007. N.N. Blokhin Russian Cancer Research Center of RAMS. 2009:20(3) (Appendix 1). (In Russ.).
- Mohammed S, Van Buren IiG, McElhany A, et al. Delayed gastric emptying following pancreaticoduodenectomy: Incidence, risk factors, and healthcare utilization. World J Gastrointest Surg. 2017 Mar 27;9(3):73-81. DOI: 10.4240/wjgs.v9.i3.73.
- Kukosh MV, Demchenko VI, Gomozov GI. Treatment-diagnostic algorithm for patients with intra-abdominal postoperative complications. Med. Almanac. 2011;(2):96-8. (In Russ.).
- Bakurova EM, Mironova KA, Zuikov SA, Verkhova OA. Some pathochemical mechanisms of the development of hemic hypoxia in patients with gastric cancer. Tavrichesky Med. Biol. Bull. 2012;15(3-2):31-3. (In Russ.).
- Bukhvalov AG, Lebedeva YuV, Grekova NM, Bordunovsky VN. Opportunities to reduce the number of postoperative complications and deaths in purulent-destructive complications of non-biliary acute severe pancreatitis. Fundamental Studies. 2015;(1-1):41-5. (In Russ.).
- Colloca G, Monfardini S. A contribution to the future of geriatric oncology training: The SIOG Treviso advanced course. J Geriatr Oncol. 2017;8(6):387-8. DOI: 10.1016/j.jgo.2017.02.005.
- Vlasov PA, Zubenkov MV, Mykot EN. Correction of manifestations of surgical aggression in the early postoperative period. In: Actual questions of medical science Collection of scientific works of students and young scientists of the All-Russian conference with international participation: Abstracts. Yaroslavl State Medical Academy; 2009. P. 233-4.
- Gonzalez-Martinez S, Martin-Baranera M, Marti-Sauri I et al. Comparison of the risk prediction systems POSSUM and P-POSSUM with the Surgical Risk Scale: A prospective cohort study of 721 patients. Int J Surg. 2016 May;29:19-24. DOI: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2016.03.005.
- Kobrinsky BA, Zarubina TV. Medical Informatics. Moscow: Academy; 2009. 192 p.
- Rebrova OYu. Statistical analysis of medical data. Applying package application programs STATISTICA. Moscow: MediaSphere; 2000. 312 p.
- Glantz Stanton A. Primer of BIOSTATISTICS. Moscow: Practica; 1999. 462 p.
- Harrell FE, Califf RM, Pryor DP. Regression models for prognostic prediction: advantages, problems and suggested solutions. Stat Med. 1984;(3):143.
- Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S. Applied Logistic Regression [electronic resource]. John Wiley and Sons. New York; 2000. 397 p.
- Vasilyeva IV. [Estimation of accuracy of prognostic scales in the conditions of the specialized hospital in children with injuries]: dis. Dr. Sc. Med. Sci. Moscow; 2017. 153 p.
For citation: Udalov YuD, Vasilyeva IV, Gordienko AV, Bakharev SA. Mathematical Model and Software for Prognosis the of Probability of the Lethal Outcome of Oncosurgical Patients Exposed to Radiation Exposure in the Conditions of Production. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2018;63(2):25-32. Russian. DOI: 10.12737/article_5ac61d88969a97.33709654
PDF (RUS) Full-text article (in Russian)