JOURNAL DESCRIPTION
The Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety journal ISSN 1024-6177 was founded in January 1956 (before December 30, 1993 it was entitled Medical Radiology, ISSN 0025-8334). In 2018, the journal received Online ISSN: 2618-9615 and was registered as an electronic online publication in Roskomnadzor on March 29, 2018. It publishes original research articles which cover questions of radiobiology, radiation medicine, radiation safety, radiation therapy, nuclear medicine and scientific reviews. In general the journal has more than 30 headings and it is of interest for specialists working in thefields of medicine¸ radiation biology, epidemiology, medical physics and technology. Since July 01, 2008 the journal has been published by State Research Center - Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of Federal Medical Biological Agency. The founder from 1956 to the present time is the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, and from 2008 to the present time is the Federal Medical Biological Agency.
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Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2019. Vol. 64. No. 6. P. 5–11
DOI: 10.12737/1024-6177-2019-64-6-5-11
A.I. Gorski1, M.A. Maksiutov1, K.A. Tumanov1, O.K. Vlasov1, E.V. Kochergina1, N.S. Zelenskaya1, S.Yu. Chekin1, S.A. Ivanov1, A.D. Kaprin2, V.K. Ivanov1
Analysis of Statistical Correlation between Radiation Dose and Cancer Mortality among the Population Residing in Areas Contaminated with Radionuclides after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station
1. A.F. Tsyb Medical Radiological Research Center, Obninsk, Russia. E-mail:
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;
2. National Medical Research Radiological Center, Moscow, Russia
A.I. Gorski – Leading Researcher, PhD Tech.;
M.A. Maksiutov – Head of Dep., PhD Tech.;
K.A. Tumanov – Head of Lab., PhD Biol.;
O.K. Vlasov – Head of Lab., Dr. Sci. Tech.;
E.V. Kochergina – Head of Lab., PhD Med.;
N.S. Zelenskaya – Researcher;
S.Yu. Chekin – Head of Lab.;
S.A. Ivanov – Director, Dr. Sci. Med., Prof.;
A.D. Kaprin – General Director, Academician of RAS, Dr. Sci. Med., Prof.;
V.K. Ivanov – Deputy Director for Science, Corr. Member of RAS, Dr. Sci. Tech., Prof.
Abstract
Purpose: To evaluate the evidence for the correlation between radiation exposure of the population following the Chernobyl accident and cancer mortality using statistical correlation.
Material and methods: Data on deaths and causes of death for the period between 1993 and 2017 were taken from the National Radiation Epidemiological Registry (NRER). The number of deaths in males is 30771 persons including 5407 cancer death, the number of deaths in females is 29033 persons including 3472 cancer death. For analysis of statistical correlation between radiation exposure and causes of death data mining algorithms free of a priori statements on probabilistic distributions of doses and diagnoses were used. Contingency tables of deaths in two dose groups: the group 0 – <0.014 Sv and the group 1 – ≥0.014 Sv; and in three age groups: group 0 – <17 years old, group 1 – 18–60 years old, group 2 – 60+ years old were used for analysis. About 90 % of individual effective doses were accumulated from 1986 till 1993. Mean effective dose is 0.024 Sv.
Results: For the population of four areas in the Russian Federation which are most contaminate after to accident on the CNPP significant association of all causes of death from cancer and for three-digit headings ICD-10 with an exposure dose was not found.
Statistically significant association between dose and pancreatic cancer (C25.9 ICD-10) and stomach cancer (С16.9) in males, stomach cancer (С16.9) and malignant neoplasms of bronchus and lungs (C34.9) in females was found. The association between dose and cancer death was demonstrated in 150–230 cases.
These diagnoses of causes of death first of all have to be a subject of more sensing and specific radiation and epidemiological analysis considering possible the confounding factors.
Conclusion: The presented method is exploratory in nature and can be used to find a direction of research necessary for making more accurate evaluation of epidemiological evidence for the correlation between dose and effect. The method may be useful for evaluation of the association between radiation exposure and pathological response (death).
Key words: population, Chernobyl accident, contamination by radionuclides, mortality, malignant neoplasms, radiation dose, radiation risk, statistical correlations, contingency tables, odds ratio
REFERENCES
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For citation: Gorski AI, Maksiutov MA, Tumanov KA, Vlasov OK, Kochergina EV, Zelenskaya NS, Chekin SYu, Ivanov SA, Kaprin AD, Ivanov VK. Analysis of Statistical Correlation between Radiation Dose and Cancer Mortality among the Population Residing in Areas Contaminated with Radionuclides after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2019;64(6):5–11. (in Russian).
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