Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2016. Vol. 61. No. 4. P. 52-58

RADIATION EPIDEMIOLOGY

I.A. Martinenko¹, M.E. Sokolnikov¹, N.A. Koshurnikova¹, Yu.G. Mokrov², D.A. Beregich²

Risk Assessment of Thyroid Cancer Incidence Among Population Due to the Residence Close to Mayak PA

1. Southern Urals Biophysics Institute, Ozersk, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ; 2. Mayak PA, Ozersk, Russia

ABSTRACT

Purpose: Thyroid cancer incidence rates in the population residing as children in areas contaminated by radioactive gas-aerosol emissions during technological development at Mayak PA were assessed in the current epidemiological study.

Material and methods: The study was carried out in a cohort of 31,836 people residing in childhood in Ozersk during 1948-1962. In that period uncontrolled gas-aerosol emissions from chimneys of radiochemical plants took place. There were 60 thyroid cancer cases diagnosed and histologically verified in the study cohort. Standardized incidence rates (SIR) were estimated by the indirect standardization by age and sex with a 95 % confidence interval. Age- and sex-related thyroid cancer incidence rates in Russia and among the urban population of Chelyabinsk were chosen as a standard. Information on radiation exposure levels of thyroid for Ozersk residents of different ages was obtained on the basis of preliminary dose calculations for two scenarios of food consumption from different suppliers. Radiation excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Sv) was calculated with the us of a Poisson regression model implemented in Amfit module of the Epicure software.

Results: SIR of thyroid cancer in the cohort was 3.16 among men (1.68-5.06) and 2.07 (1.52-2.65) among women compared to the data of national statistics. Significant difference of thyroid cancer incidence in the cohort compared to the regional statistics was also found: SIR was 2.04 (1.08-3.26) among men and 1.59 (1.17-2.04) among women. ERR/Sv was -0.03 (p > 0.5), i.e. increase of thyroid cancer incidence in the study cohort is not associated with the obtained estimates of equivalent doses to the thyroid.

Conclusion: In the cohort of persons residing as children in Ozersk in the period of uncontrolled gas-aerosol emissions from the chimneys of radiochemical plants in 1948-1962, age- and sex-related thyroid cancer incidence rates and relative risk of thyroid cancer incidence in men and women significantly (2-3 times) exceeded those in the national and regional statistics. The correlation between dose and effect was not observed. It could be associated with using group doses due to lack of individual doses.

Key words: thyroid cancer incidence, Mayak PA, radiation risk, standardized incidence ratio

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For citation: Martinenk IA, Sokolnikov ME, Koshurnikova NA, Mokrov YuG, Beregich DA. Risk Assessment of Thyroid Cancer Incidence among Population Due to the Residence Close to Mayak PA. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2016;61(4):52-8. Russian.

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