Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2012. Vol. 57. No. 6. P. 9-25


E.M. Melikhova, I.E. Barkhudarova

Sources of Errors in Interpretation Demographic Processes in Regions Contaminated with Radionuclides by Example of the Bryansk Region

Nuclear Safety Institute of the RAS, Moscow, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


ruthful interpretation of current demographic situation and longterm trends of demographic processes in radioactive contaminated territories requires correct choice of reference regions and consistent accounting for statistical data. Review of last decade publications considering quality of official medical population statistics in Russia shows that errors in calculations at national and regional levels could be not omissible. The Bryansk Region was taken as an example to get lowbound- estimates of the errors, validate reference regions selection and demonstrate the effect of consistent accounting for statistical errors in comparative analysis. It was shown that after Chernobyl accident demographic development of the Bryansk Region followed the general tendencies of the Central District (excluding the capital city). Against prevailing opinion, the Bryansk Region has never been among outsiders. It has neither progress, no regress in comparison with the typical middling regions of the Central District. A number of publications were analyzed to demonstrate typical mistakes in methods that lead to wrong interpretations of the Bryansk Region demographic situation.

Key words: the Bryansk Region, demographic process, regional  variations, quality of demographic data, Chernobyl medical consequences