Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2020. Vol. 65. No. 2. P. 17–20

V.F. Demin1, A.P. Biryukov2, M.K. Sedankin2, V.Yu. Soloviev2

Specific Risk of Radiogenic Cancer for Professionals

1 National Research Center “Kurchatov institute”, Moscow, Russia
2 A.I. Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center, Moscow, Russia
E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


Purpose: Analysis of the dependence of the probability of death due to radiogenic cancer on the dose level, on the nature of exposure to ionizing radiation (IR), on age when exposed to IR and on the age of its effect, etc., to support decisions on medical and social measures to protect workers in hazardous industries.

Material and methods: Calculation formulas for risk assessment are given using the multiplicative and additive risk models for one-time and extended exposure to IR. Medical and demographic data for the urban population of the Chelyabinsk region for 1989 were taken as necessary baseline data for risk assessment. The risk was calculated using the combined BEIR VII and EPA models.

Results: The risk is calculated in terms of annual or lifetime risk of death from spontaneous and radiogenic solid cancer for two scenarios of occupational exposure to IR (single and extended), for a set dose of 0.5; 1; 2 Sv and different ages of survival of a person who started work in production at the age of 20.

Conclusions: 1. For small and moderate doses (D ≤ 1 Sv), prolonged exposure in the age range of 20–30 years leads to less risk than with short-term exposure at the age of 20 years with the same dose. This effect is absent for irradiation after 30 years. 2. The risk of death from spontaneous solid cancer is somewhat less for exposed people than for non-exposed people. Reason: radiogenic cancer begins to compete with spontaneous one. 3. With relatively small integral doses (< 1 Sv), the radiogenic risk linearly depends on the dose. At moderate and high doses (≥ 1 Sv), for continuous extended exposure the dose dependence becomes nonlinear. 4. The probability of causation of death from radiogenic solid cancer for older people and for doses of D ≥ 1 Sv becomes significant, especially for women (30 % and more in relation to spontaneous solid cancer). 5. The lifetime risk of radiogenic cancer from the dose received at working age decreases significantly with age when it reaches 60 years of age.

Key words: dose, occupational exposure, risk assessment, radiogenic risk, mortality, solid cancer, dose–response relationship

For citation: Demin VF, Biryukov AP, Sedankin MK, Soloviev VYu. Specific Risk of Radiogenic Cancer for Professionals. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2020;65(2):17-20. (In Russ.).

DOI: 10.12737/1024-6177-2020-65-2-17-20


  1. Соловьёв ВЮ, Дёмин ВФ, Краснюк ВИ. Алгоритм принятия решений по социальной и медицинской защите в чрезвычайной ситуации. Гигиена и санитария. 2019;98(1):33-5. [Soloviev VYu, Demin VF, Krasnyuk VI. Algorithm of decision making on social and medical protection in an emergency. Gygiena and Sanitaria. 2019;98(1):33-5. (in Russ.)].
  2. Демин ВФ, Бирюков АП, Забелин МВ, Соловьев ВЮ. Проблемы установления зависимости доза — эффект для радиационного канцерогенеза. Медицинская радиология и радиационная безопасность. 2018;63(3):25-33. [Demin VF, Biryukov AP, Zabelin MV, Soloviev VYu. Problems of identifying dose — effect dependence for ionizing radiation. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2018;63(3):25-33. (in Russ.)].
  3. Рахманин ЮА, Демин ВФ, Иванов СИ. Общий подход к оценке, сравнению и нормированию риска здоровью человека от разных источников вреда. Вестник РАМН, 2006;4:5-8. [Rakhmanin YuA, Demin VF, Ivanov SI. General approach to the assessment, comparison and normalization of the risk to human health from various sources of harm. Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. 2006;4:5-8. (in Russ.)].
  4. Демин ВФ, Захарченко ИЕ. Риск воздействия ионизирующего излучения и других вредных факторов на здоровье человека: методы оценки и практическое применение. Радиационная биология. Радиоэкология. 2012;52(1):77-89. [Demin VF, Zakharchenko IE. The risk of exposure to ionizing radiation and other harmful factors on human health: assessment methods and practical application. Radiation Biology. Radioecology. 2012;52(1):77-89. (in Russ.)].
  5. Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP Publication 103. Ann. ICRP. 2007;37(2-4).
  6. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. Effects of Ionizing Radiation, UNSCEAR 2006 Report, Volume I, Annex A, NY: United Nations, 2008.
  7. Health Risks from Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation (BEIRVII). National Academy Press. Washing­ton DC. 2005. 710 p.
  8. EPA Radiogenic Cancer Risk Models and Projections for the U.S. Population. April 2011, U.S. EPA, Washington DC. 2011. 164 p.
  9. Ильин ЛА, Киселев МВ, Панфилов АП. Медико-дозиметрический регистр работников атомной промышленности России. Состояние и перспективы. Бюллетень сибирской медицины. 2005;4(2):6-13. [Il’in LA, Kiselev MV, Panfilov AP. Medical and dosimetric register of nuclear industry workers in Russia. State and prospects. Bulletin of Siberian medicine. 2005;4 (2):6-13. (in Russ.)].

PDF (RUS) Full-text article (in Russian)

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Financing. The work was carried out with the support of National Research Center "Kurchatov Institute" (order №1363 25.06.2019)

Contribution. Article was prepared with equal participation of the authors.

Article received: 05.08.2019.

Accepted for publication: 12.03.2020.