Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2021. Vol. 66. № 5. P. 95–100

Estimation of Radiotherapy Efficiency of Head-and-Neck Cancer Based on Tumor Control Probability Model

Е.S. Sukhikh1,2, L.G. Sukhikh 2, Ya.N. Sutygina1,2, P.V. Izhevsky3, I.N. Sheino3O.M.Stakhova2,4, M.I. Klinovitskaya2

1Tomsk Regional Oncology Center, Tomsk, Russia 

2National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, Tomsk, Russia

3 A.I. Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center, Moscow, Russia

4Multidisciplinary Clinical Medical Ccenter “Medical city”, Tyumen,  Russia

Contact person: Olga Mikhailovna Stakhova: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. .


Purpose: Evaluation of the expected effectiveness of radiation therapy based on models of the local tumor control probability (Tumor Control Probability – TCP) for the head-neck cancer. 

Material and мethods: The study used data from 11 patients with locally advanced head-neck cancer (larynx, oropharynx, and oral cavity). For each patient two dosimetric treatment plans have been prepared: SIB-VMAT (70 Gy per tumor, 50 Gy per lymph nodes, 25 fractions) and SEQ-VMAT (70 Gy per tumor, 50 Gy per lymph nodes, 35 fractions). The developed plans were analyzed using A. Niemierko's TCP model with parameters obtained by B. Maciejewski (TCD50 = 70.26 Gy with a 49-day total treatment time), taking into account the dose–volume histograms and the total treatment time.

Results: The developed plans ensured a high level of coverage (98–98 %) of the Clinical treatment volume (CTV) in all but one patient. The average TCP SIB-VMAT is 99.9 % due to the very short total treatment time. The average TCP for SEQ-VMAT is 61.0%. For one patient, both SIB-VMAT and SEQ-VMAT showed zero expected efficacy due to 95–95 % CTV coverage.

Conclusion: The use of TCP model allows analyzing personalized treatment plans for patients and developing adaptive treatment regimens with an increase in the total dose, dose per fraction, and a decrease in the total treatment time. 

Key words: locally advanced cancer head and neck, volumetric modulated arc therapy, simultaneous integrated dose escalation, tumor control probability, TCP model

For citation: Sukhikh ЕS, Sukhikh LG, Sutygina YaN, Izhevsky PV, Sheino IN, Stakhova OM, Klinovitskaya MI. Estimation of Radiotherapy Efficiency of Head-and-Neck Cancer Based on Tumor Control Probability Model. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety 2021;66(5):95-100.

DOI: 10.12737/1024-6177-2021-66-5-95-100


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Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Financing. The study had no sponsorship.

Contribution. Article was prepared with equal participation of the authors.

Article received: 23.12.2020. 

Accepted for publication: 20.01.2021.