Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2022. Vol. 67. № 1

Calculation Model of Human Exposure to Radiation Exposure

A.G. Zavorotny

Academy of state fire service, Moscow, Russia, Moscow

Contact person: Zavorotny Aleksandr Grigorevich: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


Purpose: The aim of the work is to assess the output of stochastic and deterministic effects depending on the effective dose.

Material and methods: To construct a model for estimating the probability the output of stochastic and deterministic effects depending on the effective dose of radiation, the literature experimental data were used and the probabilistic-statistical method and the least squares method were used.

Results: A mathematical model is developed for estimating the yield of stochastic and deterministic effects depending on the effective radiation dose. A probabilistic mathematical model allows you to convert the risks of deterministic effects due to acute exposure of a person at a high dose and with a small exposure, measured in minutes, to the risks of stochastic effects due to exposure to a small dose during a long exposure (traced or fractionated exposure). The excellent convergence of the predicted (calculated) value EAR1 = 0,000607 and statistical EAR0 = 0.000724 is due to the fact that the reference points LD10 = 2 Gy, LD50/60 = 4 Gy, LD90 = 6 Gy are based on repeatedly verified statistical data on radiation accidents and deaths of more than 1000 people in radiation accidents. This indicates that the mathematical model adequately reflects the output of stochastic and deterministic effects observed in the operation of nuclear facilities both in normal mode and in radiation accidents.

Conclusion: The probability of the yield of stochastic and deterministic effects depending on the dose of radiation received by a person is presented. The threshold of the stochastic effect for humans is in the vicinity of the equivalent dose of 10 mSv at a dose rate of 10 mSv / year for radiation with low linear energy transfer. Moreover, the probability of a stochastic effect coming out is 3×10–6 on average after 15 years.

Keywords: atomic radiation, harmful and dangerous factors for humans, stochastic and deterministic effects, effective radiation dose, the risk of loss of life

For citation: Zavorotny AG. Calculation Model of Human Exposure to Radiation Exposure. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2022;67(1):27-32.

DOI: 10.12737/1024-6177-2022-67-1-27-32


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Conflict of interest. The author declare no conflict of interest.

Financing. The study had no sponsorship.

Article received: 17.07.2021. 

Accepted for publication: 05.09.2021