Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2023. Vol. 68. № 4

DOI: 10.33266/1024-6177-2023-68-4-51-57

A.N. Menyajlo, S.Yu. Chekin, M.A. Maksioutov, E.V. Kochergina, O.K. Vlasov,
N.V. Shchukina, P.V. Kascheeva

Forecast of Radiation Risks of Thyroid Cancer among the Population of Areas of the Bryansk Region Contaminated as a Result of the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, allowing for Uncertainties in Risk Model Estimates

A.F. Tsyb Medical Radiological Research Centre ‒ branch of the National Medical Research Radiological Centre, Obninsk, Russia

Contact person: A.N. Menyajlo, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ABSTRACT

Purpose: Forecasting the lifetime attributable radiation risk of incidence with malignant neoplasm (MN) of the thyroid gland and identifying groups of increased radiation risk (HR) for the population of the Bryansk region currently (at the beginning of 2023) living in six areas most contaminated with radionuclides after the accident at Chernobyl NPP, based on a conservative approach, taking into account dose uncertainty factors and parameters of mathematical risk models.

Material and methods: The mathematical model of the radiation risk of thyroid cancer is the model recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The uncertainty assessment of radiation risks was carried out by simulation modeling, i.e. by multiple calculation of random realizations of the risk using the normal or log-normal distribution of all parameters involved in the calculation of this risk. Based on a set of random realizations, 95 % confidence limits of risks were estimated. The Unified Federal Database of the National Radiation and Epidemiological Register (NRER) containing reconstructed absorbed doses in the thyroid gland in the population was used as the initial data for the calculation.

Results: At the beginning of 2023, the group of 37–40-year-old women is characterized by the maximum radiation risks of thyroid cancer. According to conservative estimates (according to the upper 95 % confidence limits of radiation risk assessments), up to 19.9 % of people from this group may experience the development of radiation-induced thyroid cancer in the future, and for 37-year-old women this proportion can be up to 30.0 %. The greatest risk is predicted for people living in the Krasnogorsk district of the Bryansk region. Radiation-induced thyroid cancer can develop in 40.1 % of individuals from this group. Radiation risks of thyroid cancer in men are up to 10 times lower than in women. For 74.5 % of the population of the entire studied cohort, it is predicted that the maximum individual risk of 5.0×10^-5, established by NRB-99/2009 for the population under normal operation of ionizing radiation sources, will be exceeded.

Conclusions: At present (since 2023 and for life), the population of the most polluted districts of the Bryansk region continues to be at a high risk of developing radiation-induced thyroid cancers. Women at the age of 0–3 years at the time of exposure (in 1986) should be allocated to the maximum risk group. The results of this work can be used in the preparation of recommendations by health authorities to improve medical monitoring of exposed citizens.

Keywords: lifetime attributable risk, Chernobyl accident, malignant neoplasm, thyroid gland, population of contaminated territories, radiation risk models, absorbed dose

For citation: Menyajlo AN, Chekin SYu, Maksioutov MA, Kochergina EV, Vlasov OK, Shchukina NV, Kascheeva PV. Forecast of Radiation Risks of Thyroid Cancer among the Population of Areas of the Bryansk Region Contaminated as a Result of the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, allowing for Uncertainties in Risk Model Estimates. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2023;68(4):51–57. (In Russian). DOI:10.33266/1024-6177-2023-68-4-51-57

References

1. International Atomic Energy Agency. The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale. User’s Manual 2008 Edition. Vienna, IAEA, 2013. 218 p.

2. Health Risk Assessment from the Nuclear Accident after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami Based on a Preliminary Dose Estimation. World Health Organization, 2013. 172 p.

3. ICRP Publication 103. Eds. Kiselev M.F., Shandala N.K. Moscow Publ., 2009. 312 p. URL: http://www.icrp.org/docs/P103_Russian.pdf. (Accessed 06.12.2022) (In Russ.).

4. Meditsinskiye Radiologicheskiye Posledstviya Chernobylya: Prognoz i Fakticheskiye Dannyye Spustya 30 Let = Medical Radiological Consequences of Chernobyl: Forecast and Actual Data after 30 Years. Ed. Ivanov V.K., Kaprin A.D. Moscow, GEOS Publ., 2015. 450 p. (In Russ.).

5. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) 2012 Report to the General Assembly with Scientific Annexes. Scientific Annex B. Uncertainties in Risk Estimates for Radiation-Induced Cancer. New York, United Nation, 2014. 219 p.

6. Sasaki M., Ogino H., Hattori T. Quantitative Evaluation of Conservatism in the Concept of Committed Dose from Internal Exposure for Radiation Workers. J. Radiol. Prot. 2021;41;4:1328–1343. DOI: 10.1088/1361-6498/ac057f. 

7. Ramzayev P.V., Balonov M.I., Zvonova I.A., Bratilova A.A., TSyb A.F., Pitkevich V.A., Stepanenko V.F., SHishkanov N.G., Ilin L.A., Gavrilin YU.I. Rekonstruktsiya Dozy Izlucheniya Radioizotopov Yoda v Shchitovidnoy Zheleze Zhiteley Naselennykh Punktov Rossiyskoy Federatsii, Podvergshikhsya Radioaktivnomu Zagryazneniyu Vsledstviye Avarii na Chernobylskoy AES v 1986 Godu = Reconstruction of the Radiation Dose of Iodine Radioisotopes in the Thyroid Gland of Residents of Settlements of the Russian Federation Exposed to Radioactive Contamination as a Result of the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant in 1986. Guidelines MU2.6.1.1000-00. Moscow Publ., 2001 (In Russ.).

8. Balonov M.I., Zvonova I.F., Bratilova A.A., Zhesko T.B., Vlasov O.K., Shishkanov N.G., Shchukina N.V. Average Exposure Doses of the Thyroid Gland of Residents of Different Ages who Lived in 1986 in the Settlements of the Bryansk, Tula, Oryol and Kaluga Regions Contaminated with Radionuclides Due to the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. Radiatsiya i Risk = Radiation and Risk. 2002;Special issue:1–96 (In Russ.).

9. Zlokachestvennyye Novoobrazovaniya v Rossii v 2019 Godu (Zabolevayemost i Smertnost) = Malignant Tumors in Russia in 2019 (Morbidity and Mortality). Ed. Kaprin A.D., Starinskiy V.V., Shakhzadova A.O. Moscow Publ., 2020. 252 p. (In Russ.).

10. Preston D.L., Ron E., Tokuoka S., Funamoto S., Nishi N., Soda M., Mabuchi K., Kodama K. Solid Cancer Incidence in Atomic Bomb Survivors: 1958-1998. Radiat. Res. 2007;168;1:1–64. DOI: 10.1667/RR0763.1.

11. Radiation Safety Standards (NRB-99/2009). Sanitary Rules and regulations. SanPin 2.6.1.2523-09. Moscow Publ., 2009. 100 p. (In Russ.).

12. United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR). Sources and effects of ionizing radiation. UNSCEAR 2006 Report Vol. I, Annex A: Epidemiological Studies of Radiation and Cancer. New York, United Nation, 2008.

 PDF (RUS) Full-text article (in Russian)

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Financing. The study had no sponsorship.

Contribution. Article was prepared with equal participation of the authors.

Article received: 20.02.2022. Accepted for publication: 27.03.2023.