Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2015. Vol. 60. No. 5. P. 46-49


I.S. Zaharov1, G.I. Kolpinskij1, G.A. Ushakova1, E.S. Kagan2

Use Three-Dimensional Bone Densitometry in Predicting the Risk of Osteoporotic Vertebral Fractures in Postmenopausal Women

1. Kemerovo State Medical Academy, Kemerovo, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ; 2. Kemerovo State University, Kemerovo, Russia


Purpose: To develop a model for predicting osteoporotic vertebral fractures in women on the basis of three-dimensional bone densitometry.

Material and methods: The study included 282 women who are postmenopausal, 72 of which have suffered compression fractures of vertebral bodies. Three-dimensional densitometry II-IV of the lumbar vertebrae by quantitative computed tomography was carried out for all patients. Mineral density (BMD) of the trabecular and cortical bone, as well as, bilateral asymmetry indices BMD vertebral bodies were estimated. To process the results and create predictive models of fracture standard methods of binary logistic regression were used.

Results: Based on the results of three-dimensional bone densitometry the model of vertebral fractures in women prediction was developed. In the model developed the asymmetry index of trabecular bone BMD (p = 0.011) and then follow the leading indicators of trabecular bone BMD (p = 0.033), cortical bone BMD (p = 0.034) and the asymmetry index of cortical bone BMD (p = 0.044) are of the greatest significance. The area under the ROC-curve was 0.894 [0.855; 0.932], indicating that the ability to form highly predictive model. Final classification threshold was estimated as 0.371, and the sensitivity of the model - 77.8 %, specificity - 86.7 %. Based on the developed model, a low risk of vertebral fractures corresponds to the forecast probabilities was found below than 0.371, the average risk - predictive probability ranging from 0.371 to 0.5 and higher risk - higher 0.5.

ϼ/u>onclusion: The proposed method makes it possible to predict the probability of occurrence of osteoporotic fractures of the vertebrae with high confidence, which in turn could allow the timely prevention of this type of complications of osteoporosis.

Key words: osteoporosis, quantitative computed tomography, bone mineral density, binary logistic regression, prediction of fracture risk


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For citation: Zaharov IS, Kolpinskij GI, Ushakova GA, Kagan ES. Use Three-Dimensional Bone Densitometry in Predicting the Risk of Osteoporotic Vertebral Fractures in Postmenopausal Women. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2015;60(5):46-9. Russian.

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