JOURNAL DESCRIPTION
The Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety journal ISSN 1024-6177 was founded in January 1956 (before December 30, 1993 it was entitled Medical Radiology, ISSN 0025-8334). In 2018, the journal received Online ISSN: 2618-9615 and was registered as an electronic online publication in Roskomnadzor on March 29, 2018. It publishes original research articles which cover questions of radiobiology, radiation medicine, radiation safety, radiation therapy, nuclear medicine and scientific reviews. In general the journal has more than 30 headings and it is of interest for specialists working in thefields of medicine¸ radiation biology, epidemiology, medical physics and technology. Since July 01, 2008 the journal has been published by State Research Center - Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of Federal Medical Biological Agency. The founder from 1956 to the present time is the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, and from 2008 to the present time is the Federal Medical Biological Agency.
Members of the editorial board are scientists specializing in the field of radiation biology and medicine, radiation protection, radiation epidemiology, radiation oncology, radiation diagnostics and therapy, nuclear medicine and medical physics. The editorial board consists of academicians (members of the Russian Academy of Science (RAS)), the full member of Academy of Medical Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, corresponding members of the RAS, Doctors of Medicine, professor, candidates and doctors of biological, physical mathematics and engineering sciences. The editorial board is constantly replenished by experts who work in the CIS and foreign countries.
Six issues of the journal are published per year, the volume is 13.5 conventional printed sheets, 88 printer’s sheets, 1.000 copies. The journal has an identical full-text electronic version, which, simultaneously with the printed version and color drawings, is posted on the sites of the Scientific Electronic Library (SEL) and the journal's website. The journal is distributed through the Rospechat Agency under the contract № 7407 of June 16, 2006, through individual buyers and commercial structures. The publication of articles is free.
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The main working language of the journal is Russian, an additional language is English, which is used to write titles of articles, information about authors, annotations, key words, a list of literature.
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The two-year impact factor of RISC, according to data for 2017, was 0.439, taking into account citation from all sources - 0.570, and the five-year impact factor of RISC - 0.352.
Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2023. Vol. 68. № 4
DOI: 10.33266/1024-6177-2023-68-4-51-57
A.N. Menyajlo, S.Yu. Chekin, M.A. Maksioutov, E.V. Kochergina, O.K. Vlasov,
N.V. Shchukina, P.V. Kascheeva
Forecast of Radiation Risks of Thyroid Cancer among the Population of Areas of the Bryansk Region Contaminated as a Result of the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, allowing for Uncertainties in Risk Model Estimates
A.F. Tsyb Medical Radiological Research Centre ‒ branch of the National Medical Research Radiological Centre, Obninsk, Russia
Contact person: A.N. Menyajlo, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
ABSTRACT
Purpose: Forecasting the lifetime attributable radiation risk of incidence with malignant neoplasm (MN) of the thyroid gland and identifying groups of increased radiation risk (HR) for the population of the Bryansk region currently (at the beginning of 2023) living in six areas most contaminated with radionuclides after the accident at Chernobyl NPP, based on a conservative approach, taking into account dose uncertainty factors and parameters of mathematical risk models.
Material and methods: The mathematical model of the radiation risk of thyroid cancer is the model recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP). The uncertainty assessment of radiation risks was carried out by simulation modeling, i.e. by multiple calculation of random realizations of the risk using the normal or log-normal distribution of all parameters involved in the calculation of this risk. Based on a set of random realizations, 95 % confidence limits of risks were estimated. The Unified Federal Database of the National Radiation and Epidemiological Register (NRER) containing reconstructed absorbed doses in the thyroid gland in the population was used as the initial data for the calculation.
Results: At the beginning of 2023, the group of 37–40-year-old women is characterized by the maximum radiation risks of thyroid cancer. According to conservative estimates (according to the upper 95 % confidence limits of radiation risk assessments), up to 19.9 % of people from this group may experience the development of radiation-induced thyroid cancer in the future, and for 37-year-old women this proportion can be up to 30.0 %. The greatest risk is predicted for people living in the Krasnogorsk district of the Bryansk region. Radiation-induced thyroid cancer can develop in 40.1 % of individuals from this group. Radiation risks of thyroid cancer in men are up to 10 times lower than in women. For 74.5 % of the population of the entire studied cohort, it is predicted that the maximum individual risk of 5.0×10-5, established by NRB-99/2009 for the population under normal operation of ionizing radiation sources, will be exceeded.
Conclusions: At present (since 2023 and for life), the population of the most polluted districts of the Bryansk region continues to be at a high risk of developing radiation-induced thyroid cancers. Women at the age of 0–3 years at the time of exposure (in 1986) should be allocated to the maximum risk group. The results of this work can be used in the preparation of recommendations by health authorities to improve medical monitoring of exposed citizens.
Keywords: lifetime attributable risk, Chernobyl accident, malignant neoplasm, thyroid gland, population of contaminated territories, radiation risk models, absorbed dose
For citation: Menyajlo AN, Chekin SYu, Maksioutov MA, Kochergina EV, Vlasov OK, Shchukina NV, Kascheeva PV. Forecast of Radiation Risks of Thyroid Cancer among the Population of Areas of the Bryansk Region Contaminated as a Result of the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, allowing for Uncertainties in Risk Model Estimates. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2023;68(4):51–57. (In Russian). DOI:10.33266/1024-6177-2023-68-4-51-57
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PDF (RUS) Full-text article (in Russian)
Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Financing. The study had no sponsorship.
Contribution. Article was prepared with equal participation of the authors.
Article received: 20.02.2022. Accepted for publication: 27.03.2023.