SCIENTIFIC AND INFORMATION-ANALYTICAL MAGAZINE

ISSN 1024-6177 (Print), ISSN 2618-9615 (Online)

JOURNAL DESCRIPTION

The Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety journal ISSN 1024-6177 was founded in January 1956 (before December 30, 1993 it was entitled Medical Radiology, ISSN 0025-8334). In 2018, the journal received Online ISSN: 2618-9615 and was registered as an electronic online publication in Roskomnadzor on March 29, 2018. It publishes original research articles which cover questions of radiobiology, radiation medicine, radiation safety, radiation therapy, nuclear medicine and scientific reviews. In general the journal has more than 30 headings and it is of interest for specialists working in thefields of medicine¸ radiation biology, epidemiology, medical physics and technology. Since July 01, 2008 the journal has been published by State Research Center - Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of Federal Medical Biological Agency. The founder from 1956 to the present time is the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, and from 2008 to the present time is the Federal Medical Biological Agency.

Members of the editorial board are scientists specializing in the field of radiation biology and medicine, radiation protection, radiation epidemiology, radiation oncology, radiation diagnostics and therapy, nuclear medicine and medical physics. The editorial board consists of academicians (members of the Russian Academy of Science (RAS)), the full member of Academy of Medical Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, corresponding members of the RAS, Doctors of Medicine, professor, candidates and doctors of biological, physical mathematics and engineering sciences. The editorial board is constantly replenished by experts who work in the CIS and foreign countries.

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The two-year impact factor of RISC, according to data for 2017, was 0.439, taking into account citation from all sources - 0.570, and the five-year impact factor of RISC - 0.352.

Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2018. Vol. 63. No. 2. P. 33-40

RADIATION EPIDEMIOLOGY

DOI: 10.12737/article_5ac61ede369432.74296396

Risk Assessment and Dose Thresholds at the Plutonium Pnevmosclerosis

S.V. Osovets, T.V. Azizova, E.S. Grigoryeva

Southern Urals Biophysics Institute, Ozyorsk, Chelyabinsk region, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

S.V. Osovets - Senior Researcher, PhD Tech., T.V. Azizova - Deputy Director, Head of Dep., PhD Med., ICRP Committee Member; E.S. Grigoryeva - Researcher

Abstract

Purpose: To assess risks curves, dose thresholds, and their uncertainties for plutonium-induced pneumosclerosis (PPS) among Mayak PA workers based on developed methods of mathematical modeling.

Material and methods: PPS risk modeling with further calculation of dose thresholds and their uncertainties was performed using a comparative analysis of estimates of individual absorbed lung doses from incorporated plutonium-239 provided by two Mayak Worker Dosimetry Systems: MWDS-2008 and MWDS-2013. To carry out the calculations, four groups of workers were formed: workers with PPS induced only by plutonium (pure PPS; n = 107); workers with PPS induced by both plutonium and other factors (mixed PPS; n = 46); workers with undefined PPS (n = 153); control workers (comparison group; n = 188). Weibull’s dose distribution model was applied to assess risk curves. Dose distribution parameters were calculated using the least square technique. Dose thresholds were estimated using two basic methods: quantile threshold method and estimation based on dose distribution functions for each group with PPs and the comparison group. Common uncertainties were calculated using two methods: Monte-Carlo method and error propagation.

Results: Risk curves were plotted based on Weibull’s models for three groups of workers diagnosed with PPS. Modeling results were statistically significant (R2 = 0.96 - 0.99) with both dosimetry systems used (MWDS-2008 and MWDS-2013). Median absorbed lung alpha-dose (D50) estimated using Weibull’s model varied significantly with the dosimetry system. E.g., in the group with pure PPS D50= 0.79 Gy when MWDS-2008 was used while the corresponding estimate was D50= 2.05 Gy when MWDS-2013 was used, demonstrating more than a two-fold difference between the estimates. Dose thresholds for PPS occurrence and their standard uncertainties were estimated. With MWDS-2013 used, the dose thresholds were D0= 0,63 Gy for the lung and D0= 1.0 Gy for alveolar-interstitial lung tissues, respectively. The mean relative uncertainty of these thresholds was U = 23 %. Quantile dose thresholds were an order of magnitude lower than those above and their standard uncertainty, on the contrary, was 23 % higher: the mean uncertainty of 5 % quantile was U = 60 % while the corresponding value for 1 % quantile was U = 95 %.

Conclusions: For the first time dose thresholds and their uncertainties for the formation of PPS with internal alpha irradiation were estimated. The reported results are of considerable interest both for scientific and practical application in radiation safety and medicine.

Key words: plutonium pneumosclerosis, risk, dose thresholds, Weibull distribution, standard uncertainty, Mayak PA

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For citation: Osovets SV, Azizova TV, Grigoryeva ES. Risk Assessment and Dose Thresholds at the Plutonium Pnevmosclerosis. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2018;63(2):33-40. Russian. DOI: 10.12737/article_5ac61ede369432.74296396

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