Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2025. Vol. 70. № 6

DOI:10.33266/1024-6177-2025-70-6-59-64

S.S. Silkin, L.Yu. Krestinina

Radiogenic Risk of Lung Cancer Development 
in the Southern Urals Populations Exposed to Radiation Cohort

Southern Urals Research and Clinical Center for Medical Biophysics, Chelyabinsk, Russia

Contact person: Stanislav S. Silkin, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ABSTRACT

Relevance: Lung cancer is among the most common cancers both among the population of the Russian Federation and in the whole world. Ionizing radiation is one of the carcinogenic factors leading to the development of lung cancer.

The article presents risk estimation of lung cancer development in the population of the Southern Urals exposed to long-term chronic low dose rate exposure in the range of predominantly low doses while residing in the settlements along the Techa River and the territory of the East Urals Radioactive Trace.

Purpose: The objective of the study is to obtain direct estimates of the excess relative risk of lung cancer development in the exposed individuals included in the Southern Urals Populations Exposed to Radiation Cohort.

Material and methods: The study was conducted using the cohort method. The analytical cohort included 47,234 people. During the follow-up period from 1956 to 2020, 852 lung cancer cases were registered. The number of person-years included in the study was 1.3 million. Individualized absorbed doses to lungs were used in the risk analysis. The average dose was 32 mGy, the maximum was 995 mGy. The risk analysis was performed using the EPICURE statistical package. A simple parametric excess relative risk model was used.

Results: The analysis of dose dependent risk of lung cancer in the exposed population of the Southern Urals showed positive but statistically insignificant values of excess relative risk (excess relative risk calculated with a linear model with a minimum latency period of 2 years, was 0.13/Gy; 95 % CI: ‒0.56; 1.07; p> 0.5). Based on the attributive risk, additional cases of lung cancer among the cohort members associated with radiation, could reach up to 5 % in the highest dose group (more than 500 mGy); and 1.3 % ‒ in the whole cohort for the entire follow-up period (65 years). After correction of the dependence of the baseline levels of lung cancer incidence on smoking, the effect of dose on the risk of lung cancer in smokers, as well as among non-smokers, was not revealed.

Conclusion: Analysis of ERR incidence of lung cancer in the population included in the Southern Urals Population Exposed to Radiation cohort yielded a positive statistically insignificant excess relative risk value of 0.13/Gy (95 % CI: ‒0.56; 1.07; p>0.5).

Keywords: lung cancer, Southern Urals Populations Exposed to Radiation Cohort, chronic exposure, excess relative risk

For citation: Silkin SS, LYu. Radiogenic Risk of Lung Cancer Development in the Southern Urals Populations Exposed to Radiation Cohort. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2025;70(6):59–64. (In Russian). DOI:10.33266/1024-6177-2025-70-6-59-64

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 PDF (RUS) Full-text article (in Russian)

Conflict of interest. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Financing. The work was carried out with the financial support of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency of Russia as part of the implementation of a state order on the topic «Risks of Developing Organ-Specific Neoplasms in Chronic Radiation Exposure in the Ural Cohort of Accidentally Irradiated Population».

Contribution. Silkin S.S. – research design, risk analysis, and article writing; Krestinina L.Yu. – participation in risk analysis, discussion of results, and editing of the final version of the article.

Article received: 20.07.2025. Accepted for publication: 25.08.2025.