Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2016. Vol. 61. No. 6. P. 25-49


A.N. Koterov, L.N. Ushenkova, A.P. Biryukov, V.V. Uyba

Risk of Thyroid Cancer After Exposure to 131I: Combined Analysis of Experimental and Epidemiological Data Over Seven Decades. Part 1. Actual Problems and Statement of Tasks for Series of Researches

A.I. Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of FMBA, Moscow, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.


The first, goal­setting paper on analytical studies scheduled cycle on the question of the possible realistic thresholds for 131I carcinogenic effect to the thyroid gland was presented.

The problem of thyroid cancer in radiation epidemiology, radiation medicine and radiation risk of nuclear power plants assessments by people and the media was considered. The importance of this neoplasm in a purely scientific aspect was accented because the thyroid for some indicators is one of the most radiosensitive organs in terms of tumor formation (including the relative risk of cancer induction after irradiation). At the same time, the practical aspect of thyroid cancer does not seem to be relevant in connection with its low background level in the population and the low absolute risk of increased frequency of this tumor after radiation exposure. The bibliographic and bibliometric study of sources in PubMed for the period 1960-2015 revealed no special significance for the work on radiogenic thyroid cancer compared with radiogenic leukemia and two other important in radiation aspect solid tumors (breast and lung).

However, a similar study of documents of UNSCEAR (since the founding of the Committee), BEIR (BEIR­VII) and ICRP (Publication 99 and 103) showed a dramatic, statistically significant, permanent increase in the relevance of thyroid cancer (according to increase the number of references from 1964 to 2015) in contrast to the other neoplasm mentioned above. A similar pattern was found for the citation in 4 editions of the textbook «Radiation Biology of Human and Animals» (1977-2004). This proves the growth of relevance and popularity of thyroid cancer for the worldwide radiation epidemiology and radiobiology as the theme of discussion and risk assessment.

The view was expressed that on the basis of a common view on the reviews on radiobiology and radiation epidemiology of thyroid cancer after exposure to 131I for the entire study period (from the 1940s) to date there is no fullness and completeness in terms of the final risk assessments for all dose ranges; it is not clear the realistic schedule impact on any experiment or on the contingent of people (and whether it is in principle). Therefore concluded on the significance of the appropriate work cycle which provides observational studies and possibly combined analysis data (meta and/or pooled analysis) for the maximum total number of sources both in epidemiology and in radiation biology of 131I carcinogenic effects on the thyroid. Radiation biology studies are considered for determination of biological plausibility extent according to Hill causality criteria.

Key words: thyroid cancer, 131I, combined analysis of data, radiation biology, radiation epidemiology


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For citation: Koterov AN, Ushenkova LN, Biryukov AP, Uyba VV. Risk of Thyroid Cancer After Exposure to 131I: Combined Analysis of Experimental and Epidemiological Data Over Seven Decades. Part 1. Actual Problems and Statement of Tasks for Series of Researches. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2016;61(6):25-49. Russian.

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