JOURNAL DESCRIPTION
The Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety journal ISSN 1024-6177 was founded in January 1956 (before December 30, 1993 it was entitled Medical Radiology, ISSN 0025-8334). In 2018, the journal received Online ISSN: 2618-9615 and was registered as an electronic online publication in Roskomnadzor on March 29, 2018. It publishes original research articles which cover questions of radiobiology, radiation medicine, radiation safety, radiation therapy, nuclear medicine and scientific reviews. In general the journal has more than 30 headings and it is of interest for specialists working in thefields of medicine¸ radiation biology, epidemiology, medical physics and technology. Since July 01, 2008 the journal has been published by State Research Center - Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of Federal Medical Biological Agency. The founder from 1956 to the present time is the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, and from 2008 to the present time is the Federal Medical Biological Agency.
Members of the editorial board are scientists specializing in the field of radiation biology and medicine, radiation protection, radiation epidemiology, radiation oncology, radiation diagnostics and therapy, nuclear medicine and medical physics. The editorial board consists of academicians (members of the Russian Academy of Science (RAS)), the full member of Academy of Medical Sciences of the Republic of Armenia, corresponding members of the RAS, Doctors of Medicine, professor, candidates and doctors of biological, physical mathematics and engineering sciences. The editorial board is constantly replenished by experts who work in the CIS and foreign countries.
Six issues of the journal are published per year, the volume is 13.5 conventional printed sheets, 88 printer’s sheets, 1.000 copies. The journal has an identical full-text electronic version, which, simultaneously with the printed version and color drawings, is posted on the sites of the Scientific Electronic Library (SEL) and the journal's website. The journal is distributed through the Rospechat Agency under the contract № 7407 of June 16, 2006, through individual buyers and commercial structures. The publication of articles is free.
The journal is included in the List of Russian Reviewed Scientific Journals of the Higher Attestation Commission. Since 2008 the journal has been available on the Internet and indexed in the RISC database which is placed on Web of Science. Since February 2nd, 2018, the journal "Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety" has been indexed in the SCOPUS abstract and citation database.
Brief electronic versions of the Journal have been publicly available since 2005 on the website of the Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety Journal: http://www.medradiol.ru. Since 2011, all issues of the journal as a whole are publicly available, and since 2016 - full-text versions of scientific articles. Since 2005, subscribers can purchase full versions of other articles of any issue only through the National Electronic Library. The editor of the Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety Journal in accordance with the National Electronic Library agreement has been providing the Library with all its production since 2005 until now.
The main working language of the journal is Russian, an additional language is English, which is used to write titles of articles, information about authors, annotations, key words, a list of literature.
Since 2017 the journal Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety has switched to digital identification of publications, assigning to each article the identifier of the digital object (DOI), which greatly accelerated the search for the location of the article on the Internet. In future it is planned to publish the English-language version of the journal Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety for its development. In order to obtain information about the publication activity of the journal in March 2015, a counter of readers' references to the materials posted on the site from 2005 to the present which is placed on the journal's website. During 2015 - 2016 years on average there were no more than 100-170 handlings per day. Publication of a number of articles, as well as electronic versions of profile monographs and collections in the public domain, dramatically increased the number of handlings to the journal's website to 500 - 800 per day, and the total number of visits to the site at the end of 2017 was more than 230.000.
The two-year impact factor of RISC, according to data for 2017, was 0.439, taking into account citation from all sources - 0.570, and the five-year impact factor of RISC - 0.352.
Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2017. Vol. 62. No. 2. P. 35-38
DOI: 10.12737/article_58f0b9573730e4.55456538
Theoretical Estimation of Risk Function and Total Mortality Rate Based on Weibull Distribution
S.V. Osovets
Southern Urals Biophysics Institute, Ozyorsk, Chelyabinsk region, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
S.V. Osovets - senior researcher, PhD Sc. Tech.
Abstract
Purpose: To estimate theoretically total mortality risk function parameters based on Weibull distribution and to calculate the average mortality rate.
Results: Lifespan distribution function takes the general form of:
where λ(t) is mortality rate function.
To obtain Weibull’s distribution mortality rate function (risk function) is represented as power equation:
where λ0 and a are power model parameters.
We provided a function for estimation of λ0 and >α parameters to be applied to a certain follow-up pattern using maximum likelihood technique (m deaths among N of potential outcomes during [0; T] period of time) which looks as:
As a result of minimization of the function we obtained generalized analytical λ0 and α parameter estimates for risk association during a specified period of follow-up. We developed a new technique using power man-years which may be adapted for radiation epidemiology in future. For a set period of follow-up [t1,t2] (with assumptions t2 > t1 и [t1, t2] ⊂ [0; T]) the mean mortality rate λ(t) was estimated to be:
This equation implies that λ(t) depends not only on λ0 and α parameters but also on the duration of the time line (t1, t2) during which the averaging is carried out. As a special case (with α = 1) the mean mortality rate is λ(t) = λ0 , and consistent with exponential distribution.
Conclusion: The generalized technique for estimation of the coefficient and function of total mortality risk was developed on the basis of Weibull distribution. The obtained theoretical results may be used in radiation epidemiology in future.
Key words: risk function, total mortality, Weibull distribution, power man-years, estimation technique
REFERENCES
- Al’bom A., Norell S. Vvedenie v sovremennuyu ehpidemiologiyu. Tallin: Institut ehksperimental’noj i klinicheskoj mediciny. 1996. 122 p. (In Russ.).
- Boyle P., Parkin D. Statistical methods for registries. In: Cancer Registration (Principles and Methods). IARC Publication. Lyon. 1991. No. 95. P. 126-158.
- Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. Biologiya prodolzhitel’nosti zhizni: kolichestvennye aspekty. Moscow: Nauka. 1986. 169 p. (In Russ.).
- Belyh L.N., Biryukov A.P., Vasil’ev E.V., Nevzorov V.P. O teoreticheskih ocenkah srednego riska obshchej smertnosti i pravomernosti primeneniya razlichnyh zakonov raspredeleniya veroyatnostej v ehpidemiologicheskih issledovaniyah. Med. radiol. i radiac. bezopasnost’. 2015. Vol. 60. No. 5. P. 40-45. (In Russ.).
- Belyh L.N., Biryukov A.P., Vasil’ev E.V., Nevzorov V.P. Ocenki pozhiznennogo radiogennogo riska onkologicheskoj smertnosti i zabolevaemosti. Med. radiol. i radiac. bezopasnost’. 2015. Vol. 60. No. 6. P. 20-26. (In Russ.).
- Osovets S.V. Metod stepennyh cheloveko-let dlya ocenki koehfficienta i funkcii obshchej smertnosti. XVI Vserossijskaya nauchno-prakticheskaya konferenciya «Dni nauki - 2016». Materialy konferencii. Ozersk. 20-23 aprelya 2016 g. Ozersk: OTI NIYAU MIFI. 2016. P. 194-195. (In Russ.).
- Ajvazyan S.A., Enyukov I.S., Meshalkin L.D. Prikladnaya statistika: Osnovy modelirovaniya i pervichnaya obrabotka dannyh. Spravochnoe izdanie. Moscow: Finansy i statistika. 1983. 471 p. (In Russ.).
- Kobzar’ A.N. Prikladnaya matematicheskaya statistika dlya inzhenerov i nauchnyh sotrudnikov. Moscow: Fizmatlit. 2012. 816 p. (In Russ.).
- Gnedenko B.V., Belyaev Yu.K., Solov’ev A.D. Matematicheskie metody v teorii nadezhnosti: osnovnye harakteristiki nadezhnosti i ih statisticheskij analiz. Moscow: KD «LIBROKOM». 2013. 584 p. (In Russ.).
- Bahvalov N.S., Zhidkov N.P., Kobel’kov G.M. Chislennye metody. Moscow: Fizmatlit. 2001. 632 p.
- Fihtengol’ts G.M. Kurs differencial’nogo i integral’nogo ischisleniya. Moscow: Fizmatlit. 2006. Vol. No. 1. 680 p. (In Russ.).
For citation: Osovets SV. Theoretical Estimation of Risk Function and Total Mortality Rate Based on Weibull Distribution. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2017;62(2):35-8. Russian. DOI: 10.12737/article_58f0b9573730e4.55456538
PDF (RUS) Full-text article (in Russian)