Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2015. Vol. 60. No. 5. P. 40-45

RADIATION EPIDEMIOLOGY

L.N. Belyh, A.P. Biryukov, E.V. Vasiliev, V.P. Nevzorov

About the Theoretical Estimates the Average Risk of Death and Legality of the Application of Various Laws of Probability Distributions in Epidemiological Studies

A.I. Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of FMBA, Moscow, Russia, e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

ABSTRACT

Purpose: To confirm theoretically the usefulness of empirical formulas for the calculation of the average risk of mortality and the use of various laws of probability distribution for the statistical analysis of observational data.

Results: Estimations of the average value of the risk of death with varying degrees of accuracy by the risk function, the distribution function of the risk, time of occurrence of an undesirable event. Obtain statistical assessment of risk in a particular case (the exponential distribution) by maximum likelihood. Show cased interchangeability laws of probability distribution in epidemiology.

Conclusion: The time of onset of adverse events issued in the form of a continuous finite positive random variable. It enabled to construct a distribution function and to obtain estimates of the average value of the risk with varying degrees of accuracy. Existing work can serve as a theoretical basis for the use of empirical formulas for calculation of average value of the risk function with various laws of probability distribution of statistical data analysis.

Key words: risk function, average value of the risk function, distribution laws, statistical evaluation of the risk

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For citation: Belyh LN, Biryukov AP, Vasiliev EV, Nevzorov VP. About the Theoretical Estimates the Average Risk of Death and Legality of the Application of Various Laws of Probability Distributions in Epidemiological Studies. Medical Radiology and Radiation Safety. 2015;60(5):40-5. Russian.

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